Last week, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink lobbed a warning that’s still reverberating through financial markets: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda could ignite inflation, slashing hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, according to Forbes. The crypto market took the hit square on the chin. Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled 5% to $79,300 on March 10, part of a broader risk-asset rout fueled by escalating trade war fears, per TheStreet Crypto. Ethereum (ETH) followed, dropping to $1,911, while altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin shed value in sympathy. “Tariffs are a tax on growth,” Fink declared, painting a grim picture for volatile assets like BTC, now languishing 28% below its all-time high of $109,241.
Trump’s plan—imposing steep tariffs on imports, especially from China—aims to revive U.S. manufacturing and fulfill campaign promises. But the collateral damage is piling up. Investors, spooked by the prospect of higher costs and retaliatory trade barriers, have fled riskier bets. Goldman Sachs now pegs the odds of a 2025 recession at 20%, up from 15% a month ago, and the S&P 500 dipped alongside crypto in a synchronized retreat. “Everyone’s de-risking,” said Ben Brauser, a market strategist at Bitget Research. “When macro uncertainty spikes, Bitcoin’s no exception—it’s a magnifying glass on broader sentiment.”
The timing couldn’t be worse for crypto enthusiasts. Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve, launched last week with 198,000 BTC from government seizures, was supposed to be a bullish catalyst—a signal of U.S. commitment to digital assets. Instead, its reliance on existing holdings, rather than aggressive new purchases, left traders unimpressed. “The market wanted a policy jolt; it got a shrug,” one X user posted, capturing the prevailing mood. BTC’s slide below $80,000 erased much of the post-election euphoria that had driven prices skyward in late 2024, when Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric fueled dreams of a $100,000-plus resurgence.
Fink’s inflation warning adds another layer of pain. Rate cuts have long been a lifeline for crypto, boosting liquidity and appetite for speculative assets. But if tariffs drive up prices—say, for consumer goods or manufacturing inputs—the Fed might hold steady or even tighten, a scenario that’s anathema to BTC bulls. “We’re in a holding pattern,” Brauser told me, noting that Bitcoin’s key support level at $70,000 looms uncomfortably close. This week’s consumer price index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, could tip the scales. “If inflation ticks up, rate-cut hopes are toast,” he added. “That’s a $65,000 BTC conversation.”
Gold’s rise—up 3% this month—only sharpens the contrast. Economist Peter Schiff, a perennial crypto skeptic, seized the moment on X: “Bitcoin’s a fad; gold’s forever. Look at the charts.” Indeed, gold’s safe-haven status has outshone BTC’s “digital gold” narrative in 2025, a trend that stings for hodlers who saw crypto as a hedge against fiat chaos. “Schiff’s got a point—gold’s less volatile,” said Sarah Tran, an analyst at Coinpedia. “But Bitcoin’s scarcity still matters long-term.”
Some refuse to panic. “Crypto thrives in chaos,” argued Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, pointing to Trump’s broader pro-crypto stance—deregulation, the reserve—as a foundation for recovery. “This is a blip, not a bust,” he insisted, citing institutional interest and regulatory wins like the OCC’s custody ruling as structural tailwinds. On X, dip-buyers echoed him: “Loading up at $79K—see you at $120K,” one user boasted. Others aren’t so sure. “Volatility’s our friend—until it isn’t,” another quipped, reflecting a market split between opportunists and doomsayers.
The Fed’s next move, and Trump’s tariff execution, will settle the debate. If tariffs roll out aggressively—think 25% on Chinese goods—inflation could spike, forcing the Fed’s hand and dragging BTC lower. But if Trump softens his stance, or if CPI data surprises to the downside, crypto could catch a breather. “It’s a coin toss,” Tran said. “Macro’s in the driver’s seat, and crypto’s along for the ride.” For now, traders are bracing for turbulence, with $70,000 as the line in the sand—and a wary eye on gold’s gleam.
