On March 11, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to $76,624, its lowest level since November 2024, as a wave of recession fears swept through global markets. By Tuesday morning in Singapore, the cryptocurrency had clawed back slightly to $79,300, according to Bloomberg, but the damage was done: a 5% single-day drop underscored the fragility of risk assets amid mounting economic uncertainty. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto by market cap, wasn’t spared, tumbling 7.5% to $1,911—its own 16-month low—while the broader crypto market shed 4.3% of its value, shrinking to $2.6 trillion in just 24 hours, per The Economic Times.
The catalyst? President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war rhetoric, particularly his aggressive tariff policies, which have rattled investors worldwide. Since his re-election, Trump has doubled down on promises to impose steep tariffs on imports, especially from China, stoking fears of inflation and a potential U.S. recession. Goldman Sachs now estimates a 20% chance of an economic downturn in 2025, a shift that’s spooked Wall Street and spilled over into the crypto space. “When macro pressures hit, risk assets like Bitcoin take the brunt,” explained Aurelie Barthere, a principal analyst at Nansen, in an interview with CNBC. She warned that BTC could slide further to $70,000 as part of a “healthy correction” within what she still considers a long-term bull cycle.
The sell-off wasn’t isolated to crypto. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also dipped, with investors fleeing to safer havens like gold—which, notably, has outperformed Bitcoin year-to-date, as Peter Schiff gleefully pointed out on X. Yet, crypto’s volatility amplifies these swings, and Monday’s rout erased weeks of gains fueled by post-election optimism about Trump’s pro-crypto agenda. That agenda, including a newly launched U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, has so far failed to provide the stabilizing jolt bulls had hoped for.
Analysts point to a lack of crypto-specific catalysts as a key issue. “Without Federal Reserve rate cuts or a clearer regulatory push, macro trends will dictate prices,” said Ben Brauser, a market strategist at Bitget Research. The Fed’s next moves remain uncertain, especially as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation, reducing the odds of monetary easing. For now, traders are bracing for more turbulence, with key U.S. economic data—like the consumer price index—due later this week.
Still, not all hope is lost. Some see this dip as a buying opportunity, arguing that Bitcoin’s fundamentals—scarcity, growing adoption—remain intact. “We’re still in a bull market structurally,” Barthere insisted, citing institutional interest and Trump’s crypto-friendly rhetoric as long-term positives. Whether that optimism holds depends on whether the market can weather the storm—or if recession fears drag BTC even lower.
